Tonight, Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite over Aryna Sabalenka. And, while we believe it is justified, the juice on the moneyline is excessive. Our picks for the US Open Women’s Semifinals find higher value on an other line.
Aryana Sabalenka, a Belarusian native, missed Wimbledon but has come alive in New York, upsetting Czechia’s Karolina Pliskova to reach her second consecutive US Open quarterfinal.
Iga Swiatek of Poland embarked on a 37-0 run early this season and has since righted the ship after a tough spell. She defeated American Jessica Pegula in straight sets in her first US Open semifinal on Wednesday night.
Swiatek is the overwhelming favorite to win this match, but she will be up against someone looking for her first major crown. Can Sabalenka cause an upset? Find out in our preview and predictions for the US Open.
Odds for Sabalenka versus Swiatek
|(6) Aryna Sabalenka||(1) Iga Swiatek|
|+3.5 (-115)||Game spread||-3.5 (-105)|
|Over 21.5 (-115)||Total games||Under 21.5 (-105)|
Odds courtesy of OKbet Sportsbook on September 8, 2022.
OKbet Betting predictions for Sabalenka against Swiatek
Sabalenka is a big-hitting, big-serving Belarussian force who, when she’s on, is one of the finest in the world. She is eighth in aces, but she also leads the WTA in double faults with 368. In comparison, the nearest player has 251 doubles with one fewer match.
Sabalenka rose to No. 2 in the world thanks to her massive serve, but double-faults have hindered her and that rocket serve from winning a major and achieving the desired No. 1 ranking.
Sabalenka has more double faults than aces this week, but she is third in break points gained, and her return of service, along with her forehand, has brought her to the semis.
Swiatek is 53-7 this season and has won her second French Open. Her remarkable season included the “Sunshine Double” (Indian Wells and Miami), and she’s 31-5 on cement in 2022.
She’s a great ball striker with good agility who can score from either wing. Swiatek ranks 12th in service hold rate and first in service break rate among WTA players (53%).
Swiatek’s US Open statistics are respectable, however she ranks outside the Top 20 in first serves won, seventh in second service points won, and fourth in break points won. Great by most criteria, but hardly stats worthy of her great expectations.
Prediction and best bet for Sabalenka against Swiatek
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Swiatek moneyline prediction
The juice is far too high for this contest, but I believe Swiatek will win.
Swiatek’s ability to brush off mistakes and keep applying pressure is one of her most valuable talents, and it’s something Sabalenka will struggle to deal with.
Swiatek served twice in the match against Pegula, was broken both times, and failed to convert a match-point in the tiebreaker but still won. I’m not convinced Sabalenka can push Swiatek to his maximum.
Swiatek is clearly not at her best, and she was broken six times on Wednesday night, but she kept firing and broke Pegula seven times to win the match.
Sabalenka would have been watching the rest of the tournament from home if it hadn’t been for a Herculean third-round comeback against Kaia Kanepi.
Sabalenka has shown she can win with less than her best, but there’s nothing worse than a struggling big server going up against an aggressive bulldog like the World No. 1 with a 53% break of serve rate.
The Belarussian served significantly better against Pliskova on Wednesday than she has in recent matches, blasting seven aces with only three doubles without getting broken, which is a significant improvement for her. She also converted three of her seven break opportunities, which helped her reach the semi-finals.
Sabalenka moves well and enjoys hitting powerful groundies from the baseline, but she won’t want to get into any long rallies with Swiatek, or else this match will be over fast and in her advantage.
Finally, Swiatek is 35-10 against Top-10 opponents this season and has won the last three games with Sabalenka. Sabalenka is 11-10 against the Top 10 and struggles with her serve. That’s not going to cut it in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
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